Most analysts cannot see what is really happening in Russia’s war on Ukraine because the metrics they use are not appropriate to the type of war being fought.
by Scott Harper
For most of this horrendous war of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the tagline most useful for influencing Western governments against misinformation was “Ukraine can Win!”
Although Western media has not caught on, some Western analysts can see it. Ukraine not only can win, but she is winning! Why do I say that when Russia still threatens Pokrovsk, is still advancing in Donbas, and still has so many resources? I say that because those are not the correct metrics to use in a war of colonial aggression.
The theoretical assets of the Russian Federation cannot be brought to bear due to the brilliance of Ukrainian strategy. Ukraine is now able to deploy the strategy that it has wanted to use since the beginning of the war but was restrained by the cowardice of the United States. This is a strategy of strategic bombardment of the means of Russian warmaking whether financial or logistical. Bombing defense industrial facilities, command posts, rail junctions, air defenses, and petrochemical infrastructure is weakening Russia and the Putin regime much faster than Russia is advancing in Donbas.
Ukraine is manufacturing missiles, drones and glide bombs faster than Russia is, and they are also getting increasing amounts from the West without limitation on their use. This single reversal of US policy is perhaps the only positive thing that the Trump administration has done to help Ukraine. But it is a gamechanger in a way that tanks, IFVs and fighters have not been. (They might have been in the right quantity at the right point in the war, but alas…)
And Ukraine is not aiming their missiles and drones at apartment buildings like the Russians are. Ukraine is fighting a moral war and not targeting civilians. Every drone or missile or bomb is targeting a legitimate troop formation, command post, weapons storage facility or piece of the logistics chain.The amazing thing is that it is working. Inflation is killing the Russian economy. Regions of the country cannot get gasoline. Railroads cannot get food, water, and ammunition to the front line. Generals and colonels are dying in their posts. We have seen the increase of refinery fires in recent months. This is not going to stop; it is going to increase.
Europe is stepping up – to finance weapons and to build them in Ukraine. They are pressuring the Trump team to see the Russian threat for what it is. Russia is manufacturing and it is innovating, but corruption is preventing it from gaining as much as the defense budget would imply.Ukraine is innovating and manufacturing faster. It has surpassed the mark of making more than 50% of its armaments. It will continue to increase that number. The timidity of the West in the early years and the treachery on the part of the US now has led Ukraine to adopt a porcupine strategy. It has had to become its own protector to prevail, and so it has.Ukraine is winning because it is actively degrading Russian capabilities to wage war while its own capabilities are growing. It is besieging Crimea. The isolation of Crimea will accelerate.Putin is afraid. The Russian intelligence services are fighting the generals in a mass orgy of finger pointing and blame. The Russian regime will crumble and withdraw from Ukraine. This is because of Ukraine’s courage and strategic wisdom. Slava Ukraini!
